Noon Update: Heat Advisory Today; Strong Storms Late Tonight

FOR FRIDAY: Not much change during the day today, expect partly sunny, hot, and humid with scattered storms possible. Highs today should be in the mid 90s and heat index values will be approaching the dangerous 105° threshold. A Heat Advisory is in effect today.

We note the air becomes very unstable across Alabama late today and tonight with surface based CAPE values forecast to exceed 5,000 J/kg in spots.

STORMY FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY: Models continue to shows unusually high severe weather composite index values during this time frame; and it does looks like a possible MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) will move into Alabama from the north/northwest tonight and during the early morning hours Saturday. The SPC has upgraded on their Day 1 convective outlook with most of the state into a severe weather threat, as seen below. This is for the overnight hours Friday and into very early Saturday morning.

These storms will be capable of producing damaging straight line winds along with some hail. Based on forecast shear parameters an isolated tornado can’t be totally ruled out. The core threat will come from about 7PM Friday through 7AM Saturday morning. Unfortunately, this means storms will arrive during the pre-dawn hours, when most folks are asleep. Make sure you have multiple, reliable sources to receive warnings if they are issued, and pay very close attention to warnings if they are required, including severe thunderstorm warnings. This event could be very similar to the derecho event back on June 28th. Of course, this is a completely different event and the intensity, strength, and movement of storms will be different.

REST OF WEEKEND: Late tomorrow, another round of storms is possible Saturday afternoon and evening. There is a “Marginal Risk” of severe storms with this activity for much of South/Central Alabama. This event is much less certain as the atmosphere may not be able to recover from the storms earlier in the day, but there remains the possibility.

For now Sunday looks to feature scattered showers and storms, with highs in the lower 90s.

NEXT WEEK: Moisture levels gradually rise through the week, and we will cover the week with the usual hot, humid forecast with isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will range from the upper 80s into the lower 90s.

TROPICAL UPDATE: All is calm in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico and tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

Stay weather aware the next 24-36 hours!
Ryan

Categories: Daily Forecast, Weather